CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2014-09-10T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2014-09-10T18:24Z
CME Note: Associated with X1.6 flare (2014-09-10T17:21Z)
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-09-12T15:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2014-09-13T00:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-09-13T20:37Z (-13.4h, +1.1h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: COMESEP
Prediction Method Note:
CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR has issued the following GeomagneticStorm alert with impact risk evaluated as high.

Details on the above alert can be found hereafter.

Best Regards,

COMESEP Alert system.

=== COMESEP Alert Identity ===
2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool

=== Comesep Alert Info ===
Alert id: 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool
Status:normal
AlertIdAction: new
Emitter: CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR
Emitter HRef: http://www.comesep.eu
Emitter Version: 1.0
Subject: The risk level for a CME geomagnetic storm is HIGH following the observation of a CME that erupted at 18:00 on 2014-09-10 UTC. The risk level results from the following forecasted parameters: 1) occurrence probability: POSSIBLE 2) storm level: SEVERE
SubjectTopic: GeomagneticStorm

=== Comesep Alert Target ===
Target: Sun
ReceivedAt: 11-09-2014 01:51
AtEarliest: 13-09-2014 20:37
AtStrongest: 15-09-2014 04:22
AtLatest: 17-09-2014 19:55

=== Comesep Alert Impact 1 ===
ImpactType: Geomagnetic
Severity: Severe
Probability: Possible
Confidence: 0.3

=== Comesep Alert Details ===

=== Comesep Alert Parent-Child Hierarchy ===
Root Alert 1 is SolarFlare produced by solardemon received at 10-09-2014 18:19
has id 20140910181901.0M6BfCgKsg.2849@solardemon_flares
Root Alert 2 is SolarFlare produced by flaremail received at 10-09-2014 19:29
has id 20140910192901.QNFjuiifqm@flaremail
Root Alert 3 is CME produced by cactus received at 11-09-2014 01:46
has id 201409110146.ZsT6wAcKYBcggr@titus.oma.be
Child Alert 4 is CME produced by dbm received at 11-09-2014 01:46
has id 31313.1410399986@oh.geof.unizg.hr
Parent of child alert 4 is alert 3
Child Alert 5 is SEP produced by sepforecast received at 11-09-2014 01:47
has id 20140910_193001_eecece8acc@SEPForecast.oma.be
Parent of child alert 5 is alert 1
Parent of child alert 5 is alert 2
Parent of child alert 5 is alert 3
Child Alert 6 is GeomagneticStorm produced by cgft received at 11-09-2014 01:51
has id 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool (is current alert)
Parent of child alert 6 is alert 3
Parent of child alert 6 is alert 4
Parent of child alert 6 is alert 2
Parent of child alert 6 is alert 1

=== Notify Header ===
Subscription address: http://subscription
Producer address: http://producer
Topic dialect: http://dialect
Topic name: CME/CGFT/new

== DISCLAIMER ==
COMESEP makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy and COMESEP specifically disclaims any liability
or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content on the website, as well as the alerts that are sent out.
Neither COMESEP nor any other party involved in creating, producing, or delivering information that is used in the COMESEP
alert system is liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of your access to,
or use of, or inability to use or access, the website and/or the alerts that are sent out.

This file has been generated on 11-09-2014 01:51 by Comesep dispatcher at www.comesep.eu/alert
Lead Time: 37.58 hour(s)
Difference: -29.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-09-11T01:51Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement