CME Scoreboard |
|
Prediction for CME (2014-09-10T18:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2014-09-10T18:24ZCME Note: Associated with X1.6 flare (2014-09-10T17:21Z) CME Shock Arrival Time: 2014-09-12T15:26Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 7.0 Dst min. in nT: -87 Dst min. time: 2014-09-13T00:00Z Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-09-13T20:37Z (-13.4h, +1.1h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 8.0 - 8.0 Prediction Method: COMESEP Prediction Method Note: CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR has issued the following GeomagneticStorm alert with impact risk evaluated as high. Details on the above alert can be found hereafter. Best Regards, COMESEP Alert system. === COMESEP Alert Identity === 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool === Comesep Alert Info === Alert id: 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool Status:normal AlertIdAction: new Emitter: CME geomagnetic storm forecast send by RWC/SIDC - HVAR Emitter HRef: http://www.comesep.eu Emitter Version: 1.0 Subject: The risk level for a CME geomagnetic storm is HIGH following the observation of a CME that erupted at 18:00 on 2014-09-10 UTC. The risk level results from the following forecasted parameters: 1) occurrence probability: POSSIBLE 2) storm level: SEVERE SubjectTopic: GeomagneticStorm === Comesep Alert Target === Target: Sun ReceivedAt: 11-09-2014 01:51 AtEarliest: 13-09-2014 20:37 AtStrongest: 15-09-2014 04:22 AtLatest: 17-09-2014 19:55 === Comesep Alert Impact 1 === ImpactType: Geomagnetic Severity: Severe Probability: Possible Confidence: 0.3 === Comesep Alert Details === === Comesep Alert Parent-Child Hierarchy === Root Alert 1 is SolarFlare produced by solardemon received at 10-09-2014 18:19 has id 20140910181901.0M6BfCgKsg.2849@solardemon_flares Root Alert 2 is SolarFlare produced by flaremail received at 10-09-2014 19:29 has id 20140910192901.QNFjuiifqm@flaremail Root Alert 3 is CME produced by cactus received at 11-09-2014 01:46 has id 201409110146.ZsT6wAcKYBcggr@titus.oma.be Child Alert 4 is CME produced by dbm received at 11-09-2014 01:46 has id 31313.1410399986@oh.geof.unizg.hr Parent of child alert 4 is alert 3 Child Alert 5 is SEP produced by sepforecast received at 11-09-2014 01:47 has id 20140910_193001_eecece8acc@SEPForecast.oma.be Parent of child alert 5 is alert 1 Parent of child alert 5 is alert 2 Parent of child alert 5 is alert 3 Child Alert 6 is GeomagneticStorm produced by cgft received at 11-09-2014 01:51 has id 2014091115109.hghn4py0kU@cmegeomagneticforecasttool (is current alert) Parent of child alert 6 is alert 3 Parent of child alert 6 is alert 4 Parent of child alert 6 is alert 2 Parent of child alert 6 is alert 1 === Notify Header === Subscription address: http://subscription Producer address: http://producer Topic dialect: http://dialect Topic name: CME/CGFT/new == DISCLAIMER == COMESEP makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy and COMESEP specifically disclaims any liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content on the website, as well as the alerts that are sent out. Neither COMESEP nor any other party involved in creating, producing, or delivering information that is used in the COMESEP alert system is liable for any direct, incidental, consequential, indirect, or punitive damages arising out of your access to, or use of, or inability to use or access, the website and/or the alerts that are sent out. This file has been generated on 11-09-2014 01:51 by Comesep dispatcher at www.comesep.eu/alertLead Time: 37.58 hour(s) Difference: -29.18 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-09-11T01:51Z |
|
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers. Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy |